Market Changes: Insights for Investment

Article / 2024-04-14

In the era of high-quality development, the capital market environment has undergone significant changes, and the investment paradigm needs to keep pace with the times.

The new "Nine National Articles" guide investors to pay more attention to long-term value investment and returns.

Here, the author would like to share a few insights with everyone: Balancing to cope with market uncertainty: Over the past decade, growth has been the core issue, essentially because China's economy has been in a high-speed growth environment where all industries are flourishing.

In the future, as the economic growth slows down, rapid growth will become increasingly scarce, and investors' demand for certainty will continue to rise.

The market may place more emphasis on the "value" itself and gradually return to the aesthetic standard of "beauty in size," taking leading companies with outstanding competitive advantages as investment targets.

In such a market environment, a balanced style, through industry diversification and allocation of companies at different stages of development, balances growth and value, net value growth and drawdown control, striving to bring investors long-term and stable returns under different market styles.

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If we compare the balanced strategy to a dumbbell, one end of the dumbbell is stable defensive assets, which belong to high-quality companies with stable and sustainable cash flows, strong dividend intentions and shareholder returns, and solid net assets.

The other end of the dumbbell is companies that truly benefit from global industrial trends and have strong growth potential.

These companies may benefit from the AI wave or the vigorous development of emerging markets, and can bring investors good returns over a certain period.

Of course, we need to be aware that at this stage, the growth of the vast majority of so-called "technology" companies is questioned, and the market is worried whether they will become investment traps with high valuations and slow growth.

Avoiding "pseudo-technology" is something we need to pay special attention to in practice.

The overall equity market has experienced a significant correction, and there are some targets that have been wrongly killed.

Some may be due to weak sector beta, and some may be due to periodic performance fluctuations.

At this time, it is necessary to leverage our excellent stock selection capabilities, gradually deploy at positions with high cost-effectiveness, and strive to find companies that can truly grow in the long term.

The new "Nine National Articles" have a profound impact on the capital market.

As an important measure in the reform of China's capital market, the new "Nine National Articles" play a significant role in enhancing market vitality and promoting the long-term and healthy development of the capital market.

Among them, strengthening market supervision and guiding long-term investment are considered more important.

In the past, the capital market speculated on shell value and small and thematic stocks were rampant, essentially because the A-share market lacked a sound and strong delisting mechanism, leading to a large number of companies without investment value obtaining market value that does not match their true value due to potential expectations of being listed through shell companies.

The daily trading volume of some small stocks even exceeds that of some companies with a market value of tens of billions.

In the future, with the in-depth promotion of the new "Nine National Articles," the tolerance of the capital market for poor-quality companies will be greatly reduced, and the speculation will be effectively curbed.

Although there may be some fluctuations, in the long run, the phenomenon of listening to news and seeking elasticity will be fundamentally reversed, and value investment will usher in a true spring.

Investing in high-quality companies with a patient capital mentality, making steady progress, and long-term returns are worth looking forward to.

After entering the "autumn of troubles," the post-pandemic era has seen an increase in global political and economic instability, and the strategic competition between major powers has become more intense, with the living space of small countries being increasingly squeezed.

Economic fluctuations, resource competition, and territorial disputes, each issue can become a trigger for conflict.

With the deepening development of globalization, any turmoil in a region can quickly spread to the global level, becoming an uncertain factor affecting world stability.

In such an environment, I believe that the market's demand for investment certainty will continue to increase, especially the need to control fluctuations and drawdowns.

Fluctuations are essentially a loss of energy.

Under the valuation system of growth stocks in the past, for a growth expectation of more than 100%, a fluctuation or drawdown loss of 20-30% may not be considered significant.

However, if growth slows down, for an expected growth of 10-20%, low volatility value is highlighted, and high volatility is a huge loss to investment returns.

In the long run, we hope to earn more certain and stable compound growth money, rather than seeking the benefits of fluctuations, which is beneficial for the steady growth of net value and the experience of holders.

On the other hand, in the current global environment, embracing tangible and valuable resources is another form of certainty.

Taking oil as an example, the price benefits from the global pricing of the US dollar interest rate cuts, and in terms of quantity, excellent domestic listed companies, with China's ultimate dividend of engineers, can more effectively improve efficiency and reduce costs than their overseas counterparts, producing excellent cash flow.

Munger once said, "The best business to own is the one that when it stops growing, gushes cash!"

Holding such excellent companies, I believe, can strive to provide investors with long-term and stable returns.

In the era of high-quality development, market styles, investor structures, and the global environment have all undergone significant changes.

Investment paradigms need to keep pace with the times.

The difficulty of future investment is increasing, but the value created by in-depth research will be more recognized.

By combining top-down macro analysis with in-depth fundamental analysis, being a patient investor, and accompanying excellent companies to grow together.