srclogistic.com.

This morning's press conference by the three major central banks, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the Securities Regulatory Commission has injected a strong dose of confidence into the market, with undeniable effects.

Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices soared by more than 4%.

CITIC Construction Investment's Chief Strategy Officer directly renamed the customer group to "CITIC Construction Investment Strategy Counterattack," making their bullish stance extremely clear.

Hong Hao, once hailed as the most accurate macro analyst, posted on Weibo today: "It turns out that the transition from extreme pessimism to slapping one's thigh and shouting about missing out is just one press conference away."

Compared to A-shares, Hong Kong stocks stabilized earlier and also surged by 4.13% today.

At the same time, there are also quite a few remarks that are either naive or malicious, such as the economic environment is still not good, etc.

Indeed, the fundamentals will not change because of a press conference, but all financial products always reflect expectations.

Moreover, today's A-share market turnover reached 970 billion, and the trading volume indicates the quality of the rebound.

In addition, it's not just the stock market; when the stock market was experiencing a one-day tour, the government bonds that never cooperated before also fell, indicating that the most conservative capital has started to re-enter the equity market.

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The outflow of this conservative and smart money itself provides confidence for the continuity of the market trend.

The futures market, which best reflects economic expectations among financial products, also began to rise comprehensively this afternoon, with the commodity index surging by 4.92%.

Copper, aluminum, rebar steel, and rubber, which show economic expectations, have the most significant increases.

The foreign exchange market also confirms this point.

Even under the conditions of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, the RMB exchange rate has continued to rise, indicating that the foreign exchange market has voted with real money.

Because the exchange rate will only depreciate significantly when monetary easing is ineffective for the economy.

If monetary easing changes the expectation of economic growth, then monetary easing will lead to an inflow of funds.

When the real market opportunity arises, it is deafening and can wake up everyone who is not pretending to be asleep.

The pullback is an opportunity to buy!

Interestingly, the market also fell back at one point this morning due to the inertia of the bear market mentality, but President Pan's 500 billion yuan is only allowed to flow into the stock market, and the remarks on bullet restructuring directly lifted the market again.

Some people joked: "Tears welled up, in the industry for thirty years, I have only heard 'these funds are not allowed to flow into the stock market.'"

The most fundamental reason is that when the Federal Reserve began to significantly cut interest rates and may continue to significantly cut interest rates, the domestic monetary policy space has been opened.

There are still 3 trillion yuan of bond issuance quotas left unused this year, indicating that there are still stimulus cards to play.

In addition, in fact, the market is most worried about the housing that accounts for 70% of residents' wealth.

In the case of falling housing prices, consumers will inevitably have doubts.

The long-rumored reduction in the interest rates of existing mortgages has finally come to fruition, easing the pressure on the consumer side and also reducing the risk of further decline in the real estate market.

It is particularly worth noting that for the 300 billion yuan of guaranteed housing re-lending created by the People's Bank of China in May, the central bank's funding support ratio has been increased from the original 60% to 100%.

This means that the funds that were stuck before will be quickly issued, after all, everyone knows that local fiscal pressure is great, not to mention matching 40%, even matching 5% is impossible.

Now this money is crucial for stabilizing the real estate market.

Many people believe that the boost to asset prices from monetary easing is limited, but the short-term trend has little to do with the fundamentals, and the impact of sentiment is more critical.

Only in this way can the negative cycle between pessimistic expectations and the real economy be broken.

Looking back at the end of 2014, after the monetary policy turned, it gave birth to the bull market of 2015.

There is reason to believe that this policy turn also played a similar role.

In 2014, the central bank started a series of reserve requirement ratio reductions and interest rate cuts.

At that time, the reserve requirement ratio reduction was 5 consecutive times with a total of 3%, and the interest rate cut was 6 consecutive times with a total of 165 basis points.

Both policy turns were accompanied by an economic downturn, and it can be expected that subsequent continuous policy stimulus will be introduced.

Goldman Sachs continued to emphasize today that it is expected that the domestic deposit reserve ratio will be reduced by 25 basis points again in Q4 of 2024, and maintain the forecast that the deposit reserve ratio and policy interest rates will be further reduced in 2025.

Among them, the deposit reserve ratio will be reduced by 25 basis points in Q1 and Q3 of 2025, and the policy interest rate will be reduced by 10 basis points in Q2 and Q4 of 2025.

The direct catalyst for the stock market - swap convenience policy/repurchase repurchase re-lending policy 1.

Swap convenience policy For the stock market, today's adjustment of the swap convenience policy for securities funds and insurance companies is a big highlight.

The policy allows the central bank to provide certain collateral rights to financial institutions such as securities companies, enabling these institutions to obtain financial support through the mortgage of securities, bonds, stock ETFs, and components of the CSI 300, and clearly requires that these funds must be used to configure the stock market, injecting a large amount of liquidity into the market.

At the same time, the implementation of this policy also helps to optimize the asset allocation structure of financial institutions and improve the overall efficiency of the financial market.

Obtain funds through the mortgage of securities, etc.

2.

Repurchase repurchase re-lending policy The repurchase repurchase re-lending is also an unexpected and stock market-oriented policy.

It allows commercial banks to provide loans to listed companies and major shareholders for the repurchase and repurchase of listed company stocks.

The implementation of this policy will bring new sources of funds for listed companies.

The first phase is 300 billion with a low interest rate, which not only alleviates the pressure of tight market funds but also affects the equity structure of listed companies.

Some people have calculated that if the boss of a listed company with a dividend yield of 4% borrows 200 million at an interest rate of 2.25%, the dividend is 8 million, and the interest is 3.5 million.

As long as the company's operating conditions are good and insists on paying dividends, it is very beneficial for the major shareholders.

Even if the dividend rate is further increased to 5%, the amount received will be even more.

The most important thing is that this part of the income is also tax-free.

In the past, the market paid more attention to capital arbitrage, and the change in this policy means that dividends are not only a policy requirement but also activate the internal motivation of major shareholders.

The quality of the company can also be seen from the dividends in the future.

3.

The opening of mergers and acquisitions and reorganization policies support cross-industry mergers and acquisitions based on transformation and upgrading, increase the regulatory tolerance for reorganization valuation and performance commitments, and support the phased issuance of shares by listed companies.

At present, the more certain direction in mergers and acquisitions and reorganization is the reorganization of state-owned enterprises, especially in the financial industry.

For example, the hot reorganization of Guotai Junan and Haitong is a typical example.

In addition, there are also expectations for the reorganization of large securities companies such as Huijin (China Galaxy, CICC, Shenwan Hongyuan) and CITIC (CITIC Securities, CITIC Construction Investment).

These companies have already had corresponding personnel adjustments, and the market also has quite a few rumors and expectations.

If you review the big bull market between China and the United States, in addition to the Internet in the 1990s and the current AI market, most of the other big rises have several core elements.

The more conditions are met, the greater the space for market rise.

1) Loose liquidity provides a basis for the rise, and it is better to exceed expectations (such as this time and the interest rate reduction cycle in 2014); 2) The opening of mergers and acquisitions and reorganization brings the expectation of unconventional growth in performance, and only in this way can the valuation be quickly improved or even bubbled; 3) Tax cuts or stabilization of fundamentals bring about the improvement of corporate ROE; 4) The stock market system has undergone a significant optimization, and supervision has entered a relatively loose cycle.

The current market environment meets three of them, and the improvement of ROE may still need to be observed, but as a lagging indicator, it needs to be continuously focused on.

To put it bluntly, even if this is not a reversal but just a rebound, the space for the rebound is much greater than that in April, and investors should not miss it.

The most benefited plate 1.

Bull market flag bearer - securities The core logic of securities lies in the transaction commission brought by the rise of the stock market and the improvement of investment banking business + a strong consensus on mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations + the swap convenience policy brings the overall leverage ratio.

Transaction commission and investment banking are easy to understand, and reorganization raises the ceiling of the rise of the securities plate.

In addition to the Huijin West and CITIC series mentioned above, there are also many targets for the merger and reorganization of local and small and medium-sized securities companies, such as (1) Ping An series: Ping An Securities and Founder Securities, the actual controllers are all Ping An Group, and Ping An Securities is listed in Ping An Group.

With Ping An Group officially becoming the actual controller of Founder Securities, Ping An Group is expected to separate the securities business from Founder Securities and re-list after merging.

(2) Zhejiang series: Zhejiang Securities and Caifutong Securities, the actual controllers of the two securities companies are Zhejiang Transportation Group and Zhejiang Provincial Department of Finance, respectively, and the equity is relatively simple, and there is also an expectation of merger and reorganization.

(3) Anhui series: Guoyuan Securities and Huaan Securities, the actual controllers are all the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Anhui Province, and the equity is simple, and there is a great expectation of merger and reorganization.

If you sort out the balance sheets of securities companies now, many securities companies have cash on their accounts equal to the company's market value.

This part is generally very little dividend, and the utilization rate is very low.

As a financial intermediary institution, these assets are in a dormant state, and due to their state-owned background, it is difficult for these funds to pay dividends on a large scale.

However, under the current rule changes, this idle asset will be utilized, whether it is used for dividends or for mergers and acquisitions of other securities companies, it is a great catalyst for the stock price.

China Galaxy (06881) and CICC (03908) in Hong Kong stocks are both leading companies in investment banking and brokerage business, and the probability of mergers and reorganizations in the future is very high.

It can be said that the strong are united, and the personnel adjustments of the company have been going on for a period of time.

Under the current market environment, it can be focused on.

2.

Short-term high elasticity - real estate Compared to other sectors, the logic of the real estate plate's benefits mainly reflects the alleviation of debt pressure brought by the synchronized interest rate cut cycle at home and abroad and today's real estate support policies.

1) The decline in the interest rate of existing mortgages 2) Unify the minimum down payment ratio of the first and second sets of mortgages, and the down payment ratio of the second set of loans is reduced by 15%.3) The central bank's funding support ratio has been increased from 60% to 100%.

4) The policy documents for commercial property loans and the Financial 16 measures have been extended to 2026.

Many real estate companies' dollar-denominated debts are very rigid and act as the last straw that breaks the camel's back.

In the context of interest rate cuts, the pressure on these debts is alleviated, providing an opportunity for valuation repair.

Of course, since the real estate inventory and sales data have not shown a clear improvement, many companies currently have a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 2 times.

This fully reflects the expectation of bankruptcy.

If sales improve, coupled with the high leverage of real estate companies, it is very normal for individual stocks to rise by more than 20-30% in a single day.

Zhitong believes that the real estate sector naturally cannot return to its previous high point, but with a general stock price drop of more than 90%, there is a significant potential for stock price rebound once sales data improve.

Taking Vanke as an example, the company's net asset value per share is 20 yuan, with a mid-year loss of less than 1 yuan, yet the company's stock price is less than 5 yuan.

Even if it returns to 0.6 times its net asset value, the stock price could see a threefold increase.

Unless Vanke goes bankrupt in this policy environment, these high-quality companies have a significant margin for flexibility, and once they start to rise, the speed will be very fast.

In May of this year, the company's stock price doubled in just about a month.

Vanke (02202), Greentown China (03900), and Xincheng Development (01030) are three companies that are either fundamentally stable, have recently started to acquire land again, or provide high-end, distinctive housing with sales less affected by macroeconomic factors, or hold high-quality core commercial real estate with good cash flow, making them excellent targets.

3.

Large capital allocation - Internet leaders: Recently, many institutions have a generally optimistic view on Hong Kong stocks, almost reaching a consensus that A-share funds are hard to directly seek small and medium-sized stocks.

Directly allocating to large-cap stocks is a natural choice.

Reviewing the previous bull market in Hong Kong stocks, internet leaders like Tencent (00700), Alibaba (09988), and Meituan (03690) were directly allocated.

Only these companies can support a sufficiently large capital volume.

Although the Hang Seng Index has not yet returned to this year's high, the stock prices of the mentioned internet leaders have broken through their previous platforms to reach new highs for the year.

These companies generally have a large market capitalization, and there are many derivatives in Hong Kong.

Through options and warrants, it is possible to achieve excess returns on these companies.